Welcome back for another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!
There are games scattered throughout the day, so let’s take a look at some of them in the evening window.
Sonny Gray less than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
There are no doubts that Gray is having one of the finer seasons of his career.
However, his strikeout splits could not be more night and day, as he’s putting away 31% of right-handed batters, but just 15% of lefties.
This Boston lineup is a low-K squad and could be a nightmare if they platoon against Gray as they should.
The Red Sox are projected to roll out a minimum of five lefties, but I think we’ll see six or seven tonight.
Collectively, the projected lineup is striking out less than 20% of hitters.
According to Kevin Roth, the temperature in this game will be the hottest of any game on the slate, so there’s more room for baseballs to travel and for Gray to get into trouble.
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Jhony Brito less than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Brito looked like a star for the Yankees in April, but was demoted after getting knocked around in May.
However, the Yanks need a pitcher today, and he’s’ getting the call back up to face the Mariners.
Brito hasn’t been great since being back at Triple-A.
He’s yielded 14 hits and 12 runs across his last two starts.
Across his MLB experience this season, Brito has struck out just 16% of hitters.
This Mariners team strikes out a great deal, but I can see this quickly being a disaster for Brito tonight.
Josh Naylor more than 1.5 Total Bases
Paul Blackburn has been exceeding expectations since returning from an arm injury that ended his 2022 campaign.
However, this matchup sets up extremely well for Naylor tonight.
Blackburn throws his sinker about a third of the time to right-handed batters.
That pitch is arguably Naylor’s favorite to hit, as he owns a 71% hard-hit rate with a .317 ISO against the pitch dating back to the beginning of last season.
Overall, Naylor is an underrated hitter, with a .218 ISO and an elite 14% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers across the last two seasons.
I like this spot for him against one of the more hittable pitchers in the league.
Anthony Volpe less than 0.5 Total Bases
I’m predicting a rough night at the plate for the Yankees rookie shortstop.
First of all, Volpe is projected to hit last in the order, so the fewer number of hitting chances, the better.
Opposing pitcher Luis Castillo has been incredible this season, posting a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.
He’s been leaning on his fastball much more while throwing it 50% of the time to batters across the last 30 days.
Volpe is an all-or-nothing type hitter against the fastball.
While he boasts some intriguing power numbers vs. four-seam fastballs, he strikes out at a 39% clip against it.
His inconsistencies combined with being buried at the bottom of the order makes me like this one quite a bit.