The phrase “knowledge is power” is more valid than ever when it comes to information-based betting, as many will do tonight ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft.
And that knowledge comes at a premium on draft nights, as bettors descend into chaos attempting to make big money and are willing to listen to anyone claiming to be an insider.
April’s NFL Draft was no different when an obscure Reddit poster, “SaleAgreeable2834,” ignited a fury of bets on Will Levis to go No. 1 overall by claiming the Panthers had told the Kentucky quarterback that they were taking him.
His odds plummeted from 50/1 to +400 within hours after the thread was posted, as bettors rushed to their phones to get down money on their lottery ticket from an unknown source.
“It was crazy,” PointsBet oddsmaker and trader Wyatt Satre told The Post. “Obviously, top reporters carry quite a bit of weight, but we rely on sharp action from respected accounts over anything.”
That pump was short-lived, particularly after Levis said “Don’t get mad at me if you lose money” in a TikTok.
But PointsBet continued to price the Kentucky quarterback around +500 into draft day, while the rest of the market had seemingly bailed.
Levis would go on to not be drafted in the first round at all, and the information unsurprisingly came up faulty.
But that’s not always the case.
ESPN NBA reporter Adrian Wojnarowski reported for days that Jabari Smith would be drafted by the Orlando Magic with the top pick of the 2022 NBA Draft, only to be misinformed as bettors hammered Paolo Banchero at plus-odds throughout the day.
Did all of these bettors have inside information? Unlikely.
“We are really looking for sharp accounts that typically beat us on futures and draft markets and are betting four to five times more than their average bet size,” Satre said.
Then there is the risk of proxy bettors, accounts that just opened, attempting to place large wagers on information markets such as the NBA Draft — the risk being that groups of people with knowledge pool together money for potentially large payouts.
This year, PointsBet didn’t have any big wagers to report, as the book has taken a more “risk averse” approach when trading the market.
DraftKings, however, reported a massive $60,000 bet on Wembayama to go No. 1 overall on Wednesday to net a clean $300.
As for Thursday’s NBA Draft, oddsmakers have been following the information cycle on the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks, which has had plenty of ebbs and flows.
At open, Brandon Miller came in at +350 to be picked No. 2 overall, moving to +100 on May 18 and a bigger move last Friday down to -250.
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Multiple reports suggested that Miller would be drafted No. 2 overall by the Charlotte Hornets and Henderson would end up going No. 3 overall, either by the Trail Blazers or via trade, and the Alabama product went all the way down to -500.
Then, The Athletic’s Shams Charania threw a massive curveball into the equation, suggesting momentum was building for Henderson at No. 2 — and his price went all the way down to -700 to go to the Hornets, with Miller reaching +450.
It’s likely that we haven’t seen the last wild swing as the draft’s 8 p.m. start time nears.