Buck Showalter surveyed his underperforming, veteran club and expressed confidence that two and a half months of results were not enough of a sample size.
The Mets have been sinking, but he believes they will find their level.
“I’ve got a long memory of how good they are,” the Mets manager said.
The problem, when it comes to the team’s rotation, is that the past has not been predicting the present.
A front of the rotation with six combined Cy Young awards has underwhelmed.
The middle of their starting five has received nothing from the rehabbing Jose Quintana, some from Kodai Senga and very little from Carlos Carrasco.
The back of the rotation, such a strength last season, has been as disappointing as any segment of the roster.
Add it all up, and a rotation led by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander entered Thursday’s off day as the third-worst in baseball, per FanGraphs’ WAR tabulations.
Their 5.01 rotation ERA was the fifth lowest in the majors.
After Tylor Megill walked four in Wednesday’s loss, only the White Sox’s rotation had issued more bases on balls (172) than the Mets’ (162).
The most veteran rotation in baseball too often has looked like the oldest rotation in baseball.
What has gone wrong?
“If I had that answer, I think we would have rectified it already,” pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said after the Mets dropped a series to the Astros, Wednesday’s being their 13th loss in their past 17 games. “I don’t know. I think it could be a lot of things for each guy.
“We have to be better. We have to win baseball games.”
One rotation member appears to have lost his spot, and another could be in jeopardy.
Megill — who leads the group in games started — was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday after he recorded just seven outs and allowed five runs in Houston the day before.
The righty has taken a step back each month and carries a 5.17 ERA.
Carrasco, too, could be in danger, and his 6.34 ERA would be tied for the third-worst among big-league starters if he logged enough innings to qualify.
If the Mets do not tweak their order for the upcoming series, Carrasco would pitch Saturday in Philadelphia, but Showalter declined to reveal his starting-pitcher plans.
If a starter is removed, Joey Lucchesi could be a short-term fix after a pair of strong starts for Triple-A Syracuse.
Quintana is on his way back but not expected to make his season debut until early July.
David Peterson (8.08 ERA) has plunged even more precipitously than Megill this season.
Nothing has gone according to plan, beginning with the blueprint for this season: paying $86.6 million to two ringers.
Perhaps Scherzer turned a corner Monday, when he held the Astros to one run in eight innings, but he had allowed 11 runs in his previous two starts.
Verlander has been better, if not vintage, this month and also has shown signs of breaking through.
But with a rotation that Spotrac calculates is earning $128.6 million this season, the Mets are relying on hints rather than certainties.
Whenever a positive sign creeps up, a negative one follows.
When the negative ones pile up, the Mets’ bullpen gets gassed — which likely played a role in Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals, in which Adam Ottavino gave up the game-winning home run while pitching for a second straight day.
Somehow, a rotation that features a pair of future Hall of Famers entered Thursday 22nd in innings pitched.
“When [our relievers] get some days off, then that makes them that much better when they do get in the game,” Scherzer said Monday. “We’re a team. Starting pitchers need to do their job so that the relievers can do their job. If we don’t do our job, then they start failing as well.”
In offering possible theories for the group’s struggles, Hefner briefly mentioned the pitch clock before stating, “I’m not going to make excuses for the guys.”
It is possible the Mets picked the wrong year to build around two pitchers who combine for 78 years of age as well as the 36-year-old Carrasco, whose velocity has been down this season.
“We’ve got some guys that have done things well. Just hasn’t been the whole group — that’s very seldom that it’s the whole group,” Showalter said.
Megill’s command, particularly with his fastball, abandoned him.
Senga, who probably has been the club’s best starter this season, has bouts of wildness. Carrasco’s 10.6 walk rate is the worst of his career.
If there is a common link among the Mets’ struggling rotation, it might be an inability to consistently throw strikes, to which Hefner alluded.
“I don’t think we’re necessarily doing the things that we can control to the best of our abilities,” the pitching coach said.
The other common link for the most expensive rotation in baseball is a general disappointment.
