First off, to be clear, this is a big long shot.
I’m not saying to unload your bank account on this wager, but when betting on NBA draft props, you need to think outside of the box and take some swings.
Look no further than Eastern Michigan’s Emoni Bates.
I’m betting him to be taken in the first round at 16/1 (Bet365).
For anyone not familiar with Bates, he was touted as a “can’t-miss” prospect in NBA circles while he was still in high school.
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Sports Illustrated featured him on the cover of the magazine when he was in 10th grade.
The pedigree and talent is undeniable as he won Gatorade National Player of the Year, as a sophomore.
Off-court issues have held him back, which is why we’re in this position to bet on Bates.
Bates fell way below expectations in his freshman season at Memphis after being a consensus top-five talent entering school.
A back injury and criminal charges led to his subsequent transfer to Eastern Michigan.
While the Mid-American Conference may not be as competitive as the AAC, Bates still managed to put up 19.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game on a team devoid of top-end talent.
Now that we’ve gotten the bad stuff out of the way, let’s talk about the good things Bates could bring to a team, which is instant offense.
The shooting stroke and ability to create his own shot are skills coveted by NBA personnel.
It also helps significantly that he’s one of the youngest prospects in the draft (he won’t turn 20 until January).
One comparison that comes to mind is a player who traveled a similar path: Patrick Baldwin Jr.
He was highly touted coming out of high school in 2021, but decided to play for Milwaukee instead of going to a contending school in a Power 5 conference.
Although his draft stock slipped significantly, all it takes is one team to believe.
That team was the Warriors, who drafted Baldwin 28th overall last year after he was believed to be by many draft experts as a second-round pick.
I keep going back to the mantra of “all it takes is one.”
Just one team to believe that Bates can contribute or be a future asset.
It’s also worth noting that since 2001, every winner of the Gatorade National Player of the Year award in high school has been drafted in the first round.
As for where Bates could end up, there are plenty of teams picking from the 20-30 range of the first round that are searching for top-end talent, but wouldn’t necessarily be in the position to recruit via free agency.
Teams such as Indiana (26th and 29th pick), Utah (28th pick) or Charlotte (27th pick) could be great landing spots for Bates.
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There are also teams such as the Nets (21 and 22) and Clippers (30th pick) who need high-end roster depth that doesn’t break the bank.
Finally, if that doesn’t sway you to throw a small wager on it, consider this: With the new collective bargaining agreement in the NBA, first-round picks are like gold laced with platinum.
The low cost of draft picks will be essential for contenders trying to build their rosters, especially when toeing the line of going into the luxury tax, which have much stiffer financial penalties.
It all adds up to one team in Round 1 potentially rolling the dice on the talented Bates at 16/1.