The first half of the season is producing several surprises, which means we could have one or more equally surprising sellers.
For now, it shapes up as a severe seller’s market, with only a few teams looking like certain sellers: the already-open-for-business Royals, plus the Athletics and Nationals — three teams with few productive, high-priced veterans to trade. The Rockies and Tigers also are possible sellers, but Colorado doesn’t relish selling, and Detroit may be reluctant as there’s word that some there are intent on showing progress.
But it’s the potential surprise sellers — most are disappointing teams with high expectations that still seem more likely to buy or stand pat than sell — that carry the potential to make this market. Here are six such clubs (in descending order of likelihood to sell):
1. White Sox
There has to be serious consideration of a sale, which normally isn’t their M.O. The White Sox have liked this nucleus, which reached the playoffs two years ago and seems much more talented than its record. If they do sell, will they dismantle? Trading Dylan Cease and Luis Robert (unlikely in both cases) would signify a complete restart.
Odds to sell: 50 percent.
Players who’d bring a super haul: Cease, Robert.
Players who’d bring a haul: Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada.
Player who’d bring half a haul: Lance Lynn.
Players who’d bring something: Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Reynaldo Lopez, Keynan Middleton, Mike Clevinger.
2. Cardinals
They almost never sell, but folks now say they’d only really be surprised if they moved one or both of their big stars, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. That clearly isn’t the Cardinal way.
Odds to sell: 50 percent.
Players who’d bring a haul: Arenado, Goldschmidt.
Players who’d bring half a haul: Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman.
Players who’d bring something: Giovanny Gallegos.
3. Cubs
They spent to win, are playing well now and remain the only NL Central team with a positive run differential. They also, however, are realistic.
Odds to sell: 40 percent.
Players who’d bring a haul: Marcus Stroman, Cody Bellinger.
Player who’d bring half a haul: Drew Smyly.
Players who’d bring something: Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes, Patrick Wisdom.
4. Guardians
The defending AL Central champions are only a game out, but they are realists and reside in a smallish market with an understanding owner and fan base.
Odds to sell: 40 percent.
Player who’d bring a haul: Shane Bieber.
Players who’d bring half a haul: Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill.
Players who’d bring something: Amed Rosario, Mike Zunino.
5. Red Sox
They’ve suggested they may buy, and that’s their intention. But reality sometimes intervenes.
Odds to sell: 30 percent.
Players who’d bring half a haul: Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen.
Players who’d bring something: Kiké Hernandez, Justin Turner, Josh Winckowski, Chris Martin.
6. Mets
They’ve badly underperformed, but still look like unlikely sellers (especially of big names with a year to go on their deals, including “their biggest chip” Pete Alonso, plus Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander). Said one rival, assuming they still buy: “They’ve already pushed all their chips in.”
Odds to sell: 10 percent.
Player who’d bring a super haul: Alonso.
Player who’d bring a haul: David Robertson.
Player who’d bring half a haul: Brooks Raley.
Players who’d bring something: Jose Quintana, Carlos Carrasco, Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, Adam Ottavino.