The 2024 Australian Open final between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev is a classic handicapping conundrum.
Sinner, 22, has hardly put a foot wrong and is coming off a career-defining victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
The red-headed Italian has dropped just one set in his first six matches and has won 86 of his 88 (98 percent) service games Down Under.
He looks unbeatable in the same way that vintage Rafael Nadal looked in some of his most dominant French Open performances.
However, this is Sinner’s first appearance in a Grand Slam final and he’s taking on an opponent who makes it practically impossible to game plan.
Medvedev, 27, has had a very different path to the finals compared to Sinner.
The affable Russian dropped his first set of the tournament, erased a two-set deficit in Round 2 and then had to do it again in a five-set thriller against Alexader Zverev in an unforgettable semifinal victory.
It was the third time Medvedev needed to go the distance in his last five matches.
And while Sinner has a clear edge in terms of fitness — he’s spent nearly seven fewer hours on the court compared to Medvedev — you almost feel like you can throw that edge out the window because of Medvedev’s out-of-this-world mental game. No player thrives at outwitting his opponent more than the Moscow native.
Which brings us back to the conundrum at play for punters. Sinner is clearly deserving of his status as a favorite for Sunday’s final (3:30 a.m. Eastern) based on form and freshness, but it’s hard to quantify just how good Medvedev is in these situations.
His court coverage gives him a chance against Sinner’s serve and he’s got a clear experience edge as a former Grand Slam winner playing in his sixth final.
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At these prices I’m happy to ride with Medvedev and trust that his cleverness will be enough to overcome the fatigue factor.
The play: Medvedev +220