We have two NBA slates left before the All-Star Weekend break.
Wednesday’s slate is loaded with 13 games, so let’s end the first half of the season with a bang.
Tyrese Maxey (76ers vs. Heat) fewer than 35.5 points + assists
There is so much to like about Maxey, who is one of the rising stars in the NBA. However, he has a few things working against him regarding this 35.5 number Wednesday night.
Without Joel Embiid on the floor, Maxey’s assist rate goes down about 1.8%, averaging 5.3 assists per 36 minutes. It does make sense considering he is looking to score more without Embiid.
He gets a pretty big 4.9% usage bump without Embiid, averaging 28.21 points per 36 minutes in such games.
Maxey is going to have to be very efficient to eclipse this number against Miami.
The 76ers made a few deadline deals to bring in Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne, who will steal a few shots from him.
Also, the Heat play at the fourth-slowest pace and have a top-10 defensive rating this season.
Maxey has had a few spike games since Embiid’s absence, but his scoring has been a bit erratic.
It’s possible he still plays very well and remains lower than this 35.5 number due to the game environment and new faces in the Philadelphia rotation.
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers vs. Bulls) more than 26.5 points
For whatever reason, Mitchell has been much better at home this season.
I’m not sure that I can even consider it a small sample size at this point, as he’s played more than 20 games both at home and on the road.
He is averaging 30.3 points per game at home and 26.5 on the road. But the advanced metrics support those splits.
His offensive rating is 12 points higher, his usage rate gets a 1.2% bump, his true shooting percentage is up and he’s averaging 2.5 more free throw attempts at Rocket Mortgage Field House.
The Bulls play slow, but for a guy who likes to play a lot of iso-ball that doesn’t really bother me.
Chicago’s defense isn’t great, sporting the 24th-ranked defensive rating across the last 10 games and one that’s 7.9 points worse on the road than at home this season.
A blowout would be my biggest concern here.
Deni Avdija (Wizards vs. Pelicans) more than 14.5 points
Avdija might be amid an enhanced role following last week’s trade deadline. He’s now logged 34-plus minutes in each of his last three games.
He’s absolutely crushed this number, scoring 24, 21 and 25 points, respectively, in those contests.
In fact, he’s eclipsed this number in 12 of 18 games that he’s tallied at least 30 minutes this season.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
The Pelicans are a very tough matchup, but Avdija has scored at least 15 points against top-tier defenses in that 30-minute sample size, including against the Knicks (twice), Heat, Timberwolves, Thunder and Celtics.
Two of his five highest-recorded usage rates this season have come in February, so I’m feeling pretty good about us ending up on the right side of this one.