The bright lights of the NBA Playoffs have not affected the young and inexperienced Thunder at all.
In fact, Oklahoma City has stepped up and played even better in the postseason. The Thunder have won all five of their playoff games thus far while boasting a net rating of +18.0, which puts them just behind the Boston Celtics.
In Game 1, OKC forced Dallas to commit 15 turnovers, logged 16 offensive rebounds that resulted in 25 second-chance points and shot a blistering 45.7% from behind the arc. The Thunder put on a clinic on both ends of the floor.
What was most impressive about them in Game 1 was their defense on Luka Doncic, who had one of the worst playoff performances in his career. His knee is not 100% healthy, but Lu Dort and the rest of OKC’s wing defenders were nothing short of marvelous.
Can we expect a better performance from the Mavs or will OKC keep steamrolling opponents? Let’s analyze the numbers and the matchups below ahead of a potentially series-defining Game 2.
Mavericks vs. Thunder odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | +5 (-110) | +170 | o218.5 (-110) |
| Thunder | -5 (-110) | -205 | u218.5 (-110) |
Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction
Previous concerns about rebounding were alleviated in Game 1. Oklahoma City won the battle of the boards by 13, including securing 16 on the offensive end.
Another question that was answered was how OKC’s perimeter defense would hold up against the talented Mavericks backcourt.
While it is a long series, the Thunder shut down the Mavs on the perimeter in Game 1.
Doncic only shot 6-of-19 from the field for just 19 points and Kyrie Irving also finished with just 20 points.
The poor night for Doncic continued a troubling trend, as he’s shot a putrid 16.3% from 3-point land on 9.8 3-point attempts per game in his past five playoff outings.
Because of that, the Thunder can focus more on deterring him from attacking the paint and creating for others than closing him out beyond the arc.
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Mavericks vs. Thunder pick
Perhaps Dallas is simply allergic to Game 1s and will bounce back, but Doncic’s knee and recent shooting struggles give me enough concern to fade the Mavs in this spot.
Additionally, Dallas had no answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who shot an astonishing 13 free throws in Game 1.